All matches

Shamrock Rovers FC — Drogheda United FC, Premier Division

Republic of Ireland, Premier Division

Shamrock Rovers FC
2.8WLDDL
—
Drogheda United FC
1.5LWWLL
Outcome probability
6125
Shamrock Rovers FC61%Draw25%Drogheda United FC14%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Shamrock Rovers FC61%72%1.631.39-10.6
XDraw25%20%4.075.06+4.8
2Drogheda United FC14%13%7.187.70+0.9

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes44%

ours 2.27book 1.93

No56%

ours 1.79book 1.78

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricShamrock Rovers FCDrogheda United FCCombined
Goals scored1.171.172.34
Conceded1.501.332.83
Corners8.310.09.2
Cards2.21.23.3
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    Shamrock Rovers FCDrogheda United FC
    2Table position9
    54.70%Possession37.50%
    14Days of rest14
    0Matches in 14 days0
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Shamrock Rovers FC look the favourite on home turf and current form — a home win is rated at 61%. Bookmakers price this at 1.39.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Most corners: Home

70%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Shamrock Rovers FC

  • homeWaterford FC3:2
  • awaySt Patrick's Athletic FC0:2
  • homeShelbourne FC0:0
  • awayDerry City FC3:3
  • awayKuopion Palloseura0:1

Drogheda United FC

  • awayBohemian FC1:2
  • awayShelbourne FC2:1
  • homeSligo Rovers FC2:0
  • homeDundalk FC2:3
  • homeSt Patrick's Athletic FC0:2

Head to head

  • 07/31/26Premier Division0:0
  • 05/04/26Premier Division4:1
  • 03/16/26Premier Division0:0
  • 08/31/25Premier Division2:1
  • 06/16/25Premier Division2:1

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1St Patrick's Athletic FC32178752:2559
2Shamrock Rovers FC31178649:3159
3Bohemian FC31168755:3756
4Derry City FC32914945:4241
5Dundalk FC3210111149:5341
6Shelbourne FC329131042:4540
7Galway United FC329111242:4838
8Waterford FC327131244:5434
9Drogheda United FC328101438:5134
10Sligo Rovers FC32581924:5423

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.