Servette FC — FC Sion, Super League

Switzerland, Super LeagueOctober 10 at 04:00 PM

Servette FC

2.0LWWLL

—

FC Sion

2.5DWWWW

Outcome probability

312643

Servette FC31%Draw26%FC Sion43%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1Servette FC31%3.24—

XDraw26%3.80—

2FC Sion43%2.33—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes54%

ours 1.84

No46%

ours 2.19

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricServette FCFC SionCombined

Goals scored1.332.503.83

Conceded1.501.332.83

Corners12.711.011.8

Cards2.71.34.0

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
Servette FCFC Sion
8Table position3
46.70%Possession50.80%
14Days of rest14
0Matches in 14 days0
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
Away from home, FC Sion still look stronger — an away win is rated at 43%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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