UEFA Nations League

SerbiaВПВПП
—
NetherlandsНВВНВ
1Serbia35%model2.88bookmaker5.51
XDraw31%model3.24bookmaker4.04
2Netherlands34%model2.90bookmaker1.66

Goals

Corners

Cards

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

xG

Shots

Shots on target

calculated at 21:08, 186 мс

Outcome

Serbia35%
Draw31%
Netherlands34%

Corners

Subscribers only

Total 2.5

Subscribers only

Both teams to score

Subscribers only

Model vs bookmaker value

Where the model disagrees with the bookmaker most.

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Model take on Serbia vs Netherlands

Built from the numbers: expected goals, form, rest, absences and referee records.

Home advantage and current form favour Serbia: a home win is rated at 35%.

Most likely scorelines:…

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What drives the numbers

Form, rest, fixture load and league position

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Recent matches

Serbia

WLWLL
  • homeLatvia2:1
  • awayEngland0:2
  • awayAndorra3:1
  • homeAlbania0:1
  • homeEngland0:5

Netherlands

DWWDW
  • homeMorocco1:1
  • awayTunisia3:1
  • homeSweden5:1
  • homeJapan2:2
  • homeLithuania4:0

League table

The table appears once a few rounds have been played.

Three scenarios

One pick from each odds range

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Markets in detail

Probabilities are a statistical estimate from past matches, not a prediction of the result.

Сербия vs Нидерланды: prediction and stats — VARstats