UEFA Nations League

SerbiaВПВПП
—
GreeceНВППП
1Serbia23%model4.39bookmaker2.68
XDraw40%model2.48bookmaker3.31
2Greece37%model2.71bookmaker2.80

Goals

Corners

Cards

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

xG

Shots

Shots on target

calculated at 21:07, 175 мс

Outcome

Serbia23%
Draw40%
Greece37%

Corners

Subscribers only

Total 2.5

Subscribers only

Both teams to score

Subscribers only

Model vs bookmaker value

Where the model disagrees with the bookmaker most.

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Model take on Serbia vs Greece

Built from the numbers: expected goals, form, rest, absences and referee records.

The sides are closely matched, and a draw is likelier than usual at 40%.

Most likely scorelines:…

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What drives the numbers

Form, rest, fixture load and league position

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Recent matches

Serbia

WLWLL
  • homeLatvia2:1
  • awayEngland0:2
  • awayAndorra3:1
  • homeAlbania0:1
  • homeEngland0:5

Greece

DWLLL
  • awayBelarus0:0
  • homeScotland3:2
  • awayDenmark1:3
  • awayScotland1:3
  • homeDenmark0:3

League table

The table appears once a few rounds have been played.

Three scenarios

One pick from each odds range

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Markets in detail

Probabilities are a statistical estimate from past matches, not a prediction of the result.

Сербия vs Греция: prediction and stats — VARstats