Sepsi OSK Sfântu Gheorghe — FC Dinamo 1948 Bucureşti, Liga I

Romania, Liga IOctober 9 at 06:00 PM

Sepsi OSK Sfântu Gheorghe

1.7LWLWD

—

FC Dinamo 1948 Bucureşti

2.7WWWDW

Outcome probability

222950

Sepsi OSK Sfântu Gheorghe22%Draw29%FC Dinamo 1948 Bucureşti50%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1Sepsi OSK Sfântu Gheorghe22%4.57—

XDraw29%3.50—

2FC Dinamo 1948 Bucureşti50%2.02—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes41%

ours 2.46

No59%

ours 1.68

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricSepsi OSK Sfântu GheorgheFC Dinamo 1948 BucureştiCombined

Goals scored0.832.173.00

Conceded1.330.672.00

Corners10.89.510.2

Cards1.52.84.3

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
Sepsi OSK Sfântu GheorgheFC Dinamo 1948 Bucureşti
9Table position1
53.20%Possession55.30%
14Days of rest14
0Matches in 14 days0
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
Away from home, FC Dinamo 1948 Bucureşti still look stronger — an away win is rated at 50%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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