Sepsi OSK Sfântu Gheorghe — CS Universitatea Craiova, Liga I

Romania, Liga IOctober 24 at 12:00 AM

Sepsi OSK Sfântu Gheorghe

1.7LWLWD

—

CS Universitatea Craiova

3.3WWWDL

Outcome probability

172658

Sepsi OSK Sfântu Gheorghe17%Draw26%CS Universitatea Craiova58%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1Sepsi OSK Sfântu Gheorghe17%6.06—

XDraw26%3.90—

2CS Universitatea Craiova58%1.73—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes39%

ours 2.60

No61%

ours 1.63

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricSepsi OSK Sfântu GheorgheCS Universitatea CraiovaCombined

Goals scored0.671.001.67

Conceded1.170.001.17

Corners10.39.59.9

Cards1.30.01.3

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
Sepsi OSK Sfântu GheorgheCS Universitatea Craiova
7Days of rest1.3
1Matches in 14 days4
9Table position3
48.80%Possession52.50%
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
Away from home, CS Universitatea Craiova still look stronger — an away win is rated at 58%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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