Seattle Sounders FC — Montreal Impact, MLS

USA, MLSOctober 18 at 02:30 AM

Seattle Sounders FC

2.3WWDDD

—

Montreal Impact

0.9WLLLL

Outcome probability

612218

Seattle Sounders FC61%Draw22%Montreal Impact18%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1Seattle Sounders FC61%1.65—

XDraw22%4.60—

2Montreal Impact18%5.65—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes51%

ours 1.96

No49%

ours 2.04

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricSeattle Sounders FCMontreal ImpactCombined

Goals scored1.330.672.00

Conceded0.671.001.67

Corners11.79.010.3

Cards2.01.83.8

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
Seattle Sounders FCMontreal Impact
15Table position29
53.70%Possession49.80%
3.1Days of rest3.1
2Matches in 14 days2
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
Seattle Sounders FC look the favourite on home turf and current form — a home win is rated at 61%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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