All matches

Scotland — Slovenia, UEFA Nations League

International, UEFA Nations League

Scotland
2.1LDLLW
—
Slovenia
1.8WDDLD
Outcome probability
463024
Scotland46%Draw30%Slovenia24%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Scotland46%2.17—
XDraw30%3.36—
2Slovenia24%4.12—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes33%

ours 3.05

No67%

ours 1.49

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricScotlandSloveniaCombined
Goals scored0.170.170.34
Conceded0.670.501.17
Corners9.010.09.5
Cards1.51.83.3
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    ScotlandSlovenia
    45Table position15
    49.50%Possession40.00%
    3Days of rest3
    3Matches in 14 days3
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Home advantage and current form favour Scotland: a home win is rated at 46%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total cards: Over 2.5

72%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Scotland

  • homeSwitzerland0:3
  • awaySlovenia0:0
  • homeBrazil0:3
  • homeMorocco0:1
  • awayHaiti1:0

Slovenia

  • homeFYR Macedonia2:0
  • homeScotland0:0
  • awaySweden1:1
  • homeKosovo0:2
  • homeSwitzerland0:0

Head to head

  • 09/26/26UEFA Nations League0:0

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
13Bosnia Herzegovina21104:24
14Lithuania21103:14
15Slovenia21102:04
16Netherlands21103:24
17Ukraine21101:04
18Northern Ireland21101:04
19Republic of Ireland21013:13
20England21014:33
21Armenia21014:33
22Denmark21014:33
23Italy21014:33
24Malta11002:13
25Belgium21012:13
26Norway21014:43
27Kosovo21012:33
28Croatia21013:53
29Luxembourg21012:43
30Faroe Islands20202:22
31Estonia20201:12
32Azerbaijan10101:11
33Gibraltar10100:01
34Kazakhstan20112:31
35Germany20111:21
36Cyprus20111:21
37Bulgaria20111:21
38Andorra20111:21
39Hungary20110:11
40Georgia20110:11
41Moldova20111:31
42Poland20111:31
43Belarus20110:21
44Latvia20110:21
45Scotland20110:31
46Serbia20022:40
47Liechtenstein10010:20

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.