SC Paderborn 07 — Hamburger SV, Bundesliga

Germany, BundesligaOctober 24 at 01:30 PM

SC Paderborn 07

2.5WLLDW

—

Hamburger SV

1.9WLLLD

Outcome probability

502723

SC Paderborn 0750%Draw27%Hamburger SV23%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1SC Paderborn 0750%2.01—

XDraw27%3.67—

2Hamburger SV23%4.33—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes39%

ours 2.59

No61%

ours 1.63

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricSC Paderborn 07Hamburger SVCombined

Goals scored0.500.330.83

Conceded0.832.173.00

Corners10.88.89.8

Cards1.51.53.0

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
SC Paderborn 07Hamburger SV
12Table position16
46.80%Possession41.80%
7Days of rest7
2Matches in 14 days2
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
SC Paderborn 07 look the favourite on home turf and current form — a home win is rated at 50%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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