SC Fotbal Club FCSB SA — FC Oţelul Galaţi, Liga I

Romania, Liga IOctober 10 at 06:30 PM

SC Fotbal Club FCSB SA

2.5LDLLL

—

FC Oţelul Galaţi

1.8LLLDW

Outcome probability

552619

SC Fotbal Club FCSB SA55%Draw26%FC Oţelul Galaţi19%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1SC Fotbal Club FCSB SA55%1.82—

XDraw26%3.90—

2FC Oţelul Galaţi19%5.17—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes54%

ours 1.84

No46%

ours 2.19

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricSC Fotbal Club FCSB SAFC Oţelul GalaţiCombined

Goals scored1.171.002.17

Conceded2.501.674.17

Corners11.29.510.3

Cards1.82.34.2

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
SC Fotbal Club FCSB SAFC Oţelul Galaţi
11Table position14
55.30%Possession55.80%
14Days of rest14
0Matches in 14 days0
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
SC Fotbal Club FCSB SA look the favourite on home turf and current form — a home win is rated at 55%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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