SC Farense — FC Penafiel, LigaPro

Portugal, LigaProOctober 24 at 05:00 PM

SC Farense

1.3DLDWW

—

FC Penafiel

1.8WWWWD

Outcome probability

382734

SC Farense38%Draw27%FC Penafiel34%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1SC Farense38%2.61—

XDraw27%3.67—

2FC Penafiel34%2.91—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes42%

ours 2.40

No58%

ours 1.71

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricSC FarenseFC PenafielCombined

Goals scored0.832.173.00

Conceded0.670.671.34

Corners9.07.48.2

Cards2.02.84.8

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

The other six metrics — with a subscription

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
SC FarenseFC Penafiel
1Matches in 14 days0
10Table position2
53.80%Possession46.00%
13.2Days of rest14
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
Home advantage and current form favour SC Farense: a home win is rated at 38%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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