SC Farense — CD Feirense, LigaPro

Portugal, LigaProOctober 11 at 01:00 PM

SC Farense

1.3DLDWW

—

CD Feirense

1.6LLLLL

Outcome probability

452727

SC Farense45%Draw27%CD Feirense27%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1SC Farense45%2.21—

XDraw27%3.67—

2CD Feirense27%3.65—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes34%

ours 2.93

No66%

ours 1.52

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricSC FarenseCD FeirenseCombined

Goals scored1.170.171.34

Conceded0.831.332.16

Corners9.89.59.7

Cards1.81.73.5

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
SC FarenseCD Feirense
1Matches in 14 days0
7.1Days of rest14
10Table position18
53.00%Possession55.70%
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
SC Farense look the favourite on home turf and current form — a home win is rated at 45%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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