SC do Recife — Criciuma EC, Serie B

Brazil, Serie BOctober 23 at 12:00 AM

SC do Recife

1.4LWLWL

—

Criciuma EC

2.0WLLLW

Outcome probability

472824

SC do Recife47%Draw28%Criciuma EC24%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1SC do Recife47%2.12—

XDraw28%3.53—

2Criciuma EC24%4.09—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes42%

ours 2.37

No58%

ours 1.73

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricSC do RecifeCriciuma ECCombined

Goals scored0.500.501.00

Conceded0.670.331.00

Corners12.513.012.8

Cards1.52.03.5

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
SC do RecifeCriciuma EC
9Table position5
6Days of rest4.2
56.00%Possession66.50%
2Matches in 14 days2
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
SC do Recife look the favourite on home turf and current form — a home win is rated at 47%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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