SC Austria Lustenau — LASK Linz, Bundesliga

Austria, BundesligaOctober 17 at 03:00 PM

SC Austria Lustenau

1.8WLLDW

—

LASK Linz

2.8DLLWW

Outcome probability

222454

SC Austria Lustenau22%Draw24%LASK Linz54%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1SC Austria Lustenau22%4.63—

XDraw24%4.13—

2LASK Linz54%1.85—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes55%

ours 1.81

No45%

ours 2.23

Over 2.5 goals

This market opens with a subscription.

See plans

Over 9.5 corners

This market opens with a subscription.

See plans

Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricSC Austria LustenauLASK LinzCombined

Goals scored1.001.172.17

Conceded1.331.172.50

Corners13.611.012.3

Cards2.41.84.2

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

The other six metrics — with a subscription

Free full access for 3 days when you sign up

Start free Plans

Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
SC Austria LustenauLASK Linz
8Table position3
6.1Days of rest2.9
1Matches in 14 days2
42.20%Possession63.00%
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
LASK Linz travel as favourites: despite playing away, a win is rated at 54%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
Free full access for 3 days when you sign up
Start free Plans