SBV Vitesse — FC Emmen, Eerste Divisie

Netherlands, Eerste DivisieOctober 23 at 06:00 PM

SBV Vitesse

1.9LWLWW

—

FC Emmen

1.6WLLWL

Outcome probability

522127

SBV Vitesse52%Draw21%FC Emmen27%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1SBV Vitesse52%1.93—

XDraw21%4.71—

2FC Emmen27%3.69—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes66%

ours 1.52

No34%

ours 2.91

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricSBV VitesseFC EmmenCombined

Goals scored0.500.501.00

Conceded0.670.831.50

Corners10.012.311.2

Cards2.01.73.7

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
SBV VitesseFC Emmen
9Table position6
45.70%Possession62.00%
7Days of rest6.1
2Matches in 14 days2
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
Home advantage and current form favour SBV Vitesse: a home win is rated at 52%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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