All matches

Sardarapat — Artsakh, Armenian Premier League

Armenia, Armenian Premier League

Sardarapat
1.9DDLLW
—
Artsakh
3.5WWWWW
Outcome probability
80
Sardarapat7%Draw13%Artsakh80%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Sardarapat7%14.29—
XDraw13%7.46—
2Artsakh80%1.26—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes50%

ours 2.01

No50%

ours 1.99

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricSardarapatArtsakhCombined
Goals scored1.332.333.66
Conceded1.670.332.00
Corners13.27.510.3
Cards1.21.32.5
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    SardarapatArtsakh
    5Table position1
    43.00%Possession56.80%
    14Days of rest14
    0Matches in 14 days0
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    FC Artsakh travel as favourites: despite playing away, a win is rated at 80%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total goals: Under 4.5

72%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Sardarapat

  • awayCSKA Yerevan1:1
  • homeAlashkert1:1
  • homePyunik2:4
  • awayShirak0:2
  • homeGandzasar3:1

Artsakh

  • homeVan2:0
  • awayUrartu3:0
  • homeGandzasar Kapan3:2
  • homeArarat Yerevan4:0
  • awayCSKA Yerevan1:0

Head to head

No head-to-head matches on record.

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1Artsakh880021:524
2Avan Academy861117:819
3Pyunik853018:818
4Alashkert843118:615
5Sardarapat833214:1212
6Urartu832312:1011
7Shirak831411:1010

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.