All matches

Santos FC Sao Paulo — CR Flamengo, Serie A

Brazil, Serie A

Santos FC Sao Paulo
2.3WWWWD
—
CR Flamengo
3.6WWWWW
Outcome probability
252848
Santos FC Sao Paulo25%Draw28%CR Flamengo48%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Santos FC Sao Paulo25%4.01—
XDraw28%3.63—
2CR Flamengo48%2.10—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes52%

ours 1.92

No48%

ours 2.09

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricSantos FC Sao PauloCR FlamengoCombined
Goals scored1.501.833.33
Conceded0.830.671.50
Corners11.012.211.6
Cards3.01.74.7
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    Santos FC Sao PauloCR Flamengo
    1Matches in 14 days0
    8Table position1
    6Days of rest14
    53.20%Possession60.80%
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Away from home, CR Flamengo still look stronger — an away win is rated at 48%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total goals: Under 3.5

72%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Santos FC Sao Paulo

  • awayClube do Remo2:1
  • homeCruzeiro EC2:1
  • awaySC Internacional3:2
  • awaySC Corinthians Paulista1:0
  • homeMirassol Futebol Clube1:1

CR Flamengo

  • homeClube Atlético Bragantino2:1
  • homeSC Corinthians Paulista2:1
  • awayClube do Remo1:0
  • homeMirassol Futebol Clube2:0
  • homeBotafogo FR3:0

Head to head

  • 04/05/26Serie A1:3
  • 11/09/25Serie A2:3
  • 07/16/25Serie A1:0

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1CR Flamengo28186455:2360
2SE Palmeiras28169347:2157
3CA Paranaense28147743:3249
4Fluminense FC28139644:3648
5EC Bahia281210643:3546
6Cruzeiro EC28136942:4045
7CA Mineiro27117936:3240
8Santos FC Sao Paulo27108941:4038
9Coritiba FBC281081037:4338
10Clube Atlético Bragantino271061133:3136

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.