All matches

Sabah FK — Qarabağ Ağdam FK, Premyer Liqası

Azerbaijan, Premyer Liqası

Sabah FK
3.4WWLWW
—
Qarabağ Ağdam FK
3.4WDWWL
Outcome probability
402832
Sabah FK40%Draw28%Qarabağ Ağdam FK32%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Sabah FK40%2.51—
XDraw28%3.51—
2Qarabağ Ağdam FK32%3.16—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes59%

ours 1.70

No41%

ours 2.42

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricSabah FKQarabağ Ağdam FKCombined
Goals scored1.001.002.00
Conceded0.170.500.67
Corners9.010.89.9
Cards0.51.01.5
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    Sabah FKQarabağ Ağdam FK
    2.3Days of rest7
    4Matches in 14 days2
    2Table position3
    65.00%Possession65.80%
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Sabah FK look the favourite on home turf and current form — a home win is rated at 40%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total cards: Under 3.5

71%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Sabah FK

  • homeMil Muğan FK3:1
  • awayFK Safa3:0
  • awayManchester United FC0:4
  • homeZira IK5:0
  • awayAraz FK1:0

Qarabağ Ağdam FK

  • homeFK Safa1:0
  • awayZira IK1:1
  • homeAraz FK3:2
  • awayFK Sumqayıt1:0
  • homeFC Twente1:4

Head to head

  • 04/18/26Premyer Liqası1:0
  • 03/01/26Premyer Liqası3:3
  • 12/18/25Premyer Liqası2:1
  • 04/27/25Premyer Liqası1:1
  • 02/22/25Premyer Liqası1:1

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1Neftçi PFC Bakı650118:515
2Sabah FK550014:115
3Qarabağ Ağdam FK54109:413
4Turan-T IK63216:411
5Zira IK63127:810

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.