All matches

Romania — Sweden, UEFA Nations League

International, UEFA Nations League

Romania
2.1LLLWL
—
Sweden
1.9WWLDL
Outcome probability
442333
Romania44%Draw23%Sweden33%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Romania44%2.29—
XDraw23%4.31—
2Sweden33%3.01—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes55%

ours 1.80

No45%

ours 2.24

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricRomaniaSwedenCombined
Goals scored1.500.672.17
Conceded1.171.672.84
Corners6.57.57.0
Cards2.01.33.3
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    RomaniaSweden
    49Table position2
    47.30%Possession49.00%
    3Days of rest3
    3Matches in 14 days3
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Home advantage and current form favour Romania: a home win is rated at 44%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Goal in both halves: Yes

71%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Romania

  • homeBosnia Herzegovina2:4
  • awaySweden1:2
  • awayTurkey0:1
  • homeSan Marino7:1
  • awayBosnia Herzegovina1:3

Sweden

  • homePoland3:1
  • homeRomania2:1
  • awayFrance0:3
  • awayJapan1:1
  • awayNetherlands1:5

Head to head

  • 09/25/26UEFA Nations League1:2

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1Austria22006:26
2Sweden22005:26
3Montenegro22005:36
4Greece22003:16
5Portugal22003:16
6France22002:06
7Bosnia Herzegovina21104:24
8Lithuania21103:14
9Netherlands21103:24
10Northern Ireland21101:04
11Ukraine21101:04
12Finland11007:03
13Switzerland11003:03
14Republic of Ireland21013:13
15Slovakia11002:03
16Albania11002:03
17Armenia21014:33
18Italy21014:33
19Denmark21014:33
20Spain11003:23
21Luxembourg11002:13
22Croatia11002:13
23Belgium21012:13
24Malta11002:13
25Norway21014:43
26Kosovo21012:33
27Iceland10101:11
28Azerbaijan10101:11
29Faroe Islands10101:11
30Estonia10101:11
31Kazakhstan10101:11
32Slovenia10100:01
33Scotland10100:01
34Gibraltar10100:01
35Andorra20111:21
36Cyprus20111:21
37Germany20111:21
38Georgia20110:11
39Hungary20110:11
40Poland20111:31
41Latvia20110:21
42England10012:30
43Czech Republic10011:20
44Bulgaria10011:20
45Serbia20022:40
46Moldova10010:20
47Belarus10010:20
48Liechtenstein10010:20
49Romania20023:60
50FYR Macedonia10010:30
51Wales20020:30

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.