Both teams to score
Yes44%
ours 2.29
No56%
ours 1.78
All matches
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Rionegro Águilas SA — Club Deportes Tolima SA, Categoria Primera A
Colombia, Categoria Primera A
Rionegro Águilas SA
1.7LLDLDClub Deportes Tolima SA
2.9DDLLWOutcome probability
293140
Rionegro Águilas SA29%Draw31%Club Deportes Tolima SA40%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Rionegro Águilas SA3.43—
XDraw3.24—
2Club Deportes Tolima SA2.50—
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricRionegro Águilas SAClub Deportes Tolima SACombined
Goals scored0.330.500.83
Conceded0.830.671.50
Corners10.79.310.0
Cards3.03.76.7
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.
- 1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
Rionegro Águilas SAClub Deportes Tolima SA13Table position33.9Days of rest62Matches in 14 days354.30%Possession58.00% - 2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
Away from home, Club Deportes Tolima SA still look stronger — an away win is rated at 40%.
Most likely scorelines:…
- 3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pickRisky pickThe full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
Free full access for 3 days when you sign up
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Double chance: No draw
70%
Form and context
Rionegro Águilas SA
- awayAsociación Deportivo Cali0:2
- awaySociedad Anónima Deportiva América SA0:1
- homeCS Deportiva y Cultural de Pereira2:2
- awayClub Atlético Nacional SA0:2
- awayCD La Equidad Seguros SA2:2
Club Deportes Tolima SA
- awayFortaleza CEIF FC2:2
- homeSociedad Anónima Deportiva América SA1:1
- awayOnce Caldas SA0:1
- awayIndependiente Santa Fe SA0:1
- awayClub Llaneros SA2:1
Head to head
- 04/01/26Categoria Primera A1:4
- 11/14/25Categoria Primera A1:2
- 05/25/25Categoria Primera A2:1
- 11/02/24Categoria Primera A0:1
- 04/12/24Categoria Primera A1:2
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1
Club Atlético Nacional SA34242867:3074
Club Atlético Nacional SA34242867:30742
Sociedad Anónima Deportiva América SA32177848:2658
Sociedad Anónima Deportiva América SA32177848:26583Club Deportes Tolima SA341510946:3455
Club Deportes Tolima SA341510946:34554
Independiente Santa Fe SA341315653:3654
Independiente Santa Fe SA341315653:36545
CD Popular Junior FC SA341581152:4253
CD Popular Junior FC SA341581152:42536
Asociación Deportivo Cali30139837:2448
Asociación Deportivo Cali30139837:24487
Millonarios FC SA321211949:3447
Millonarios FC SA321211949:34478
Once Caldas SA321113847:4046
Once Caldas SA321113847:40469
Deportivo Independiente Medellín301371045:3946
Deportivo Independiente Medellín301371045:394610
CA Bucaramanga291013643:2943
CA Bucaramanga291013643:294311
AD Pasto321261438:4642
AD Pasto321261438:464212
CD La Equidad Seguros SA339131141:5240
CD La Equidad Seguros SA339131141:524013Rionegro Águilas SA299101032:4037
Rionegro Águilas SA299101032:403714
Club Llaneros SA308121031:3436
Club Llaneros SA308121031:343615
Fortaleza CEIF FC306131135:4531
Fortaleza CEIF FC306131135:4531