All matches

Real Club Deportivo Mallorca — UD Las Palmas, Segunda División

Spain, Segunda División

Real Club Deportivo Mallorca
1.7LWWDW
—
UD Las Palmas
2.0LLWDL
Outcome probability
423029
Real Club Deportivo Mallorca42%Draw30%UD Las Palmas29%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Real Club Deportivo Mallorca42%2.38—
XDraw30%3.39—
2UD Las Palmas29%3.51—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes31%

ours 3.24

No69%

ours 1.45

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricReal Club Deportivo MallorcaUD Las PalmasCombined
Goals scored1.001.002.00
Conceded0.171.671.84
Corners9.09.69.3
Cards3.22.86.0
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    Real Club Deportivo MallorcaUD Las Palmas
    1Matches in 14 days2
    6Table position11
    54.60%Possession53.20%
    6.9Days of rest7
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Real Club Deportivo Mallorca look the favourite on home turf and current form — a home win is rated at 42%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

First half total: Under 1.5

72%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Real Club Deportivo Mallorca

  • homeUD Almería0:1
  • awayReal Sociedad de Fútbol II1:0
  • homeCE Sabadell FC2:0
  • awayCD Eldense0:0
  • homeAgrupación Deportiva Ceuta FC3:0

UD Las Palmas

  • awaySD Eibar2:3
  • homeBurgos CF1:2
  • awayCádiz CF1:0
  • homeCD Leganés0:0
  • awayGirona FC2:5

Head to head

  • 02/16/25La Liga3:1
  • 11/23/24La Liga3:2

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
4Burgos CF742111:714
5Girona FC741214:813
6Real Club Deportivo Mallorca74128:313
7CE Sabadell FC73318:612
8Real Oviedo73227:411
9CD Tenerife73228:911
10CD Leganés73226:711
11UD Las Palmas731310:1110
12Real Sporting de Gijón73135:610
13Granada CF722310:118

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.