All matches

Rasen Ballsport Leipzig — Eintracht Frankfurt, Bundesliga

Germany, Bundesliga

Rasen Ballsport Leipzig
2.4LWLLW
—
Eintracht Frankfurt
2.1DWLDD
Outcome probability
542422
Rasen Ballsport Leipzig54%Draw24%Eintracht Frankfurt22%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Rasen Ballsport Leipzig54%1.84—
XDraw24%4.22—
2Eintracht Frankfurt22%4.57—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes66%

ours 1.51

No34%

ours 2.98

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricRasen Ballsport LeipzigEintracht FrankfurtCombined
Goals scored1.832.174.00
Conceded2.172.504.67
Corners10.09.59.8
Cards1.51.83.3
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    Rasen Ballsport LeipzigEintracht Frankfurt
    56.50%Possession49.80%
    9Table position10
    14Days of rest14
    0Matches in 14 days0
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Home advantage and current form favour Rasen Ballsport Leipzig: a home win is rated at 54%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total goals: Over 2.5

71%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Rasen Ballsport Leipzig

  • awayBayer 04 Leverkusen0:2
  • homeHamburger SV5:0
  • awayCalcio Como1:4
  • awaySV Werder Bremen1:3
  • homeBorussia VfL Mönchengladbach3:0

Eintracht Frankfurt

  • homeSC Freiburg2:2
  • away1. FSV Mainz 053:1
  • homeFC Augsburg1:4
  • away1. FC Union Berlin3:3
  • homeVfB Stuttgart 18932:2

Head to head

  • 04/18/26Bundesliga3:1
  • 12/06/25Bundesliga6:0
  • 04/26/25Bundesliga0:4
  • 12/15/24Bundesliga2:1

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
7SV 07 Elversberg42118:77
8SV Werder Bremen42118:87
9Rasen Ballsport Leipzig42029:56
10Eintracht Frankfurt41219:105
11FC Schalke 0441213:45
12SC Paderborn 0741123:54

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.