Rangers FC — Kilmarnock FC, Premiership

Scotland, PremiershipOctober 10 at 02:00 PM

Rangers FC

3.0WWWWW

—

Kilmarnock FC

1.2DWDLL

Outcome probability

Rangers FC82%Draw11%Kilmarnock FC7%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1Rangers FC82%1.22—

XDraw11%8.80—

2Kilmarnock FC7%15.24—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes49%

ours 2.04

No51%

ours 1.97

Over 2.5 goals

This market opens with a subscription.

See plans

Over 9.5 corners

This market opens with a subscription.

See plans

Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricRangers FCKilmarnock FCCombined

Goals scored1.000.501.50

Conceded0.331.832.16

Corners11.312.211.8

Cards1.52.03.5

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

The other six metrics — with a subscription

Free full access for 3 days when you sign up

Start free Plans

Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
Rangers FCKilmarnock FC
2Table position12
49.00%Possession42.00%
14Days of rest14
0Matches in 14 days0
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
Home advantage and current form favour Rangers FC: a home win is rated at 82%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
Free full access for 3 days when you sign up
Start free Plans