Randers FC — Viborg FF, Superliga

Denmark, SuperligaOctober 11 at 12:00 PM

Randers FC

1.6LLWWL

—

Viborg FF

2.2WDLWW

Outcome probability

282745

Randers FC28%Draw27%Viborg FF45%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1Randers FC28%3.60—

XDraw27%3.68—

2Viborg FF45%2.22—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes54%

ours 1.86

No46%

ours 2.17

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricRanders FCViborg FFCombined

Goals scored1.332.333.66

Conceded2.001.173.17

Corners11.010.010.5

Cards1.80.52.3

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
Randers FCViborg FF
8Table position3
46.20%Possession46.70%
14Days of rest14
0Matches in 14 days0
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
Away from home, Viborg FF still look stronger — an away win is rated at 45%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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