Racing FC Union Lëtzebuerg — US Mondorf-les-Bains, National Division

Luxembourg, National DivisionOctober 25 at 03:00 PM

Racing FC Union Lëtzebuerg

2.4DWWDL

—

US Mondorf-les-Bains

2.9LLWWW

Outcome probability

332245

Racing FC Union Lëtzebuerg33%Draw22%US Mondorf-les-Bains45%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1Racing FC Union Lëtzebuerg33%3.04—

XDraw22%4.49—

2US Mondorf-les-Bains45%2.23—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes55%

ours 1.83

No45%

ours 2.21

Over 2.5 goals

This market opens with a subscription.

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Over 9.5 corners

This market opens with a subscription.

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricRacing FC Union LëtzebuergUS Mondorf-les-BainsCombined

Goals scored1.671.002.67

Conceded0.671.001.67

Corners9.89.79.7

Cards0.0——

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
Racing FC Union LëtzebuergUS Mondorf-les-Bains
4Table position3
50.00%Possession51.70%
7Days of rest7
1Matches in 14 days1
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
Away from home, US Mondorf-les-Bains still look stronger — an away win is rated at 45%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price

Basebalance of probability and price

Total goals: Under 3.5

71%

High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context