Racing FC Union Lëtzebuerg — FC Atert Bissen, National Division

Luxembourg, National DivisionOctober 11 at 02:00 PM

Racing FC Union Lëtzebuerg

2.4DWWDL

—

FC Atert Bissen

2.6WWLLW

Outcome probability

292150

Racing FC Union Lëtzebuerg29%Draw21%FC Atert Bissen50%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1Racing FC Union Lëtzebuerg29%3.50—

XDraw21%4.73—

2FC Atert Bissen50%1.99—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes61%

ours 1.64

No39%

ours 2.55

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricRacing FC Union LëtzebuergFC Atert BissenCombined

Goals scored2.672.335.00

Conceded1.001.832.83

Corners9.36.47.9

Cards0.0——

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
Racing FC Union LëtzebuergFC Atert Bissen
4Table position7
50.50%Possession50.80%
14Days of rest14
0Matches in 14 days0
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
FC Atert Bissen travel as favourites: despite playing away, a win is rated at 50%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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