All matches

Racing Club de Montevideo — CA Peñarol, Primera División

Uruguay, Primera División

Racing Club de Montevideo
2.6LDWLW
—
CA Peñarol
3.8WWWWL
Outcome probability
242748
Racing Club de Montevideo24%Draw27%CA Peñarol48%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Racing Club de Montevideo24%29%4.093.42-4.8
XDraw27%32%3.643.10-4.8
2CA Peñarol48%46%2.082.17+2.0

Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricRacing Club de MontevideoCA PeñarolCombined
Goals scored0.831.832.66
Conceded0.830.671.50
Corners8.88.28.5
Cards2.21.84.0
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    Racing Club de MontevideoCA Peñarol
    4Table position1
    8.4Days of rest4
    55.00%Possession52.80%
    2Matches in 14 days2
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Away from home, CA Peñarol still look stronger — an away win is rated at 48%. Bookmakers price this at 2.17.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Double chance: No draw

72%1.32
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Racing Club de Montevideo

  • awayClub Atlético Progreso1:2
  • awayLiverpool FC Montevideo0:0
  • homeCA Boston River3:2
  • awayClub Atlético Cerro0:1
  • homeAlbion FC1:0

CA Peñarol

  • homeCA Boston River2:1
  • awayClub Atlético Cerro2:1
  • homeAlbion FC3:1
  • awayDanubio Fútbol Club4:0
  • homeClub Nacional de Football0:1

Head to head

  • 07/12/26Primera División1:1
  • 03/29/26Primera División2:1
  • 08/31/25Primera División1:4
  • 03/09/25Primera División2:0
  • 09/30/24Primera División0:0

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1CA Peñarol30195653:2562
2Club Deportivo Maldonado30167746:2755
3CA Torque29165851:3453
4Racing Club de Montevideo301411536:2453
5Club Nacional de Football301541145:3849
6Liverpool FC Montevideo301210839:2846

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.