Lens — Lyon, Ligue 1

France, Ligue 1October 9 at 06:45 PM

Lens

2.6LDWLL

—

Lyon

3.0WWDWD

Outcome probability

432632

Lens43%Draw26%Lyon32%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1Lens43%44%2.352.26-1.6

XDraw26%26%3.903.82-0.6

2Lyon32%31%3.153.21+0.6

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes55%

ours 1.82book 1.45

No45%

ours 2.22book 2.59

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricLensLyonCombined

Goals scored2.001.833.83

Conceded1.830.832.66

Corners10.810.710.8

Cards1.81.73.5

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
LensLyon
15Table position2
53.00%Possession51.80%
14Days of rest14
0Matches in 14 days0
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
Home advantage and current form favour Racing Club de Lens: a home win is rated at 43%. Bookmakers price this at 2.26.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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