Racing Club de Avellaneda — CA Belgrano de Córdoba, Primera División

Argentina, Primera DivisiónOctober 11 at 12:00 AM

Racing Club de Avellaneda

2.1WLLLD

—

CA Belgrano de Córdoba

2.0WDDDL

Outcome probability

393131

Racing Club de Avellaneda39%Draw31%CA Belgrano de Córdoba31%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1Racing Club de Avellaneda39%2.59—

XDraw31%3.28—

2CA Belgrano de Córdoba31%3.24—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes45%

ours 2.21

No55%

ours 1.83

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricRacing Club de AvellanedaCA Belgrano de CórdobaCombined

Goals scored1.170.832.00

Conceded1.500.832.33

Corners7.49.68.5

Cards2.02.04.0

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
Racing Club de AvellanedaCA Belgrano de Córdoba
22Table position2
67.80%Possession70.50%
6Days of rest6.2
1Matches in 14 days1
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
Home advantage and current form favour Racing Club de Avellaneda: a home win is rated at 39%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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