Querétaro FC — Cruz Azul FC, Liga MX

Mexico, Liga MXOctober 26 at 01:00 AM

Querétaro FC

1.6WDWWL

—

Cruz Azul FC

3.3DLWWW

Outcome probability

302743

Querétaro FC30%Draw27%Cruz Azul FC43%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1Querétaro FC30%3.39—

XDraw27%3.70—

2Cruz Azul FC43%2.30—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes52%

ours 1.93

No48%

ours 2.08

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricQuerétaro FCCruz Azul FCCombined

Goals scored0.671.171.84

Conceded0.171.171.34

Corners15.011.313.2

Cards3.73.77.3

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
Querétaro FCCruz Azul FC
4Table position7
2Matches in 14 days3
34.00%Possession48.70%
5Days of rest3.9
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
Cruz Azul FC travel as favourites: despite playing away, a win is rated at 43%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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