Both teams to score
Yes55%
ours 1.81
No45%
ours 2.23
All matches
—
Queens Park Rangers FC — Derby County FC, Championship
England, Championship
Queens Park Rangers FC
1.6DDDLWDerby County FC
1.5DLLLWOutcome probability
442828
Queens Park Rangers FC44%Draw28%Derby County FC28%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Queens Park Rangers FC2.26—
XDraw3.57—
2Derby County FC3.60—
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricQueens Park Rangers FCDerby County FCCombined
Goals scored0.830.671.50
Conceded0.831.172.00
Corners12.012.412.2
Cards1.81.43.2
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.
- 1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
Queens Park Rangers FCDerby County FC7Table position225Days of rest4.251.40%Possession51.20%1Matches in 14 days1 - 2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
Home advantage and current form favour Queens Park Rangers FC: a home win is rated at 44%.
Most likely scorelines:…
- 3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pickRisky pickThe full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
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More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Total goals: Under 3.5
71%
Form and context
Queens Park Rangers FC
- homePreston North End FC2:2
- awayWest Bromwich Albion FC1:1
- awayCharlton Athletic FC0:0
- homeMiddlesbrough FC0:1
- homeCardiff City FC2:1
Derby County FC
- awayBurnley FC1:1
- homeBirmingham City FC1:2
- homeWest Bromwich Albion FC0:1
- awayWest Ham United FC0:3
- awayPortsmouth FC2:0
Head to head
- 04/25/26Championship2:3
- 10/25/25Championship0:1
- 02/14/25Championship4:0
- 10/05/24Championship0:2
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
5
Wolverhampton Wanderers FC742115:1014
Wolverhampton Wanderers FC742115:10146
West Bromwich Albion FC842210:814
West Bromwich Albion FC842210:8147Queens Park Rangers FC834110:713
Queens Park Rangers FC834110:7138
Stoke City FC841313:1213
Stoke City FC841313:12139
Bristol City FC841311:1213
Bristol City FC841311:121310
Charlton Athletic FC83327:1012
Charlton Athletic FC83327:101211
Birmingham City FC825112:1111
Birmingham City FC825112:111112
Millwall FC832315:1511
Millwall FC832315:151113
Lincoln City FC83237:811
Lincoln City FC83237:81114
Wrexham FC82429:1210
Wrexham FC82429:121015
Bolton Wanderers FC831411:1510
Bolton Wanderers FC831411:151016
Blackburn Rovers FC823312:129
Blackburn Rovers FC823312:12917
Norwich City FC830516:179
Norwich City FC830516:17918
Sheffield United FC82339:119
Sheffield United FC82339:11919
Portsmouth FC72239:108
Portsmouth FC72239:10820
Watford FC82247:108
Watford FC82247:10821
Cardiff City FC814310:127
Cardiff City FC814310:12722Derby County FC81257:145
Derby County FC81257:14523
Preston North End FC81168:154
Preston North End FC81168:15424
Burnley FC80449:174
Burnley FC80449:174