Pyunik — CSKA Yerevan, Armenian Premier League

Armenia, Armenian Premier LeagueOctober 10 at 12:00 AM

Pyunik

3.0DWWDW

—

CSKA Yerevan

1.2DLWWL

Outcome probability

7318

Pyunik73%Draw18%CSKA Yerevan9%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1Pyunik73%1.37—

XDraw18%5.58—

2CSKA Yerevan9%10.81—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes44%

ours 2.27

No56%

ours 1.79

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricPyunikCSKA YerevanCombined

Goals scored2.171.333.50

Conceded1.001.172.17

Corners10.210.010.1

Cards1.81.33.1

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
PyunikCSKA Yerevan
3Table position9
60.80%Possession49.70%
14Days of rest14
0Matches in 14 days0
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
Pyunik FC look the favourite on home turf and current form — a home win is rated at 73%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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