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Puebla FC 0:1 Deportivo Toluca FC, Liga MX

Mexico, Liga MXMatch finished

Puebla FC
0.8LDLWL
0:1HT 0:0
Deportivo Toluca FC
3.1DLWWW
Pre-match forecastpublished
152263
Puebla FC15%Draw22%Deportivo Toluca FC63%

Match stats

How the match went in numbers.

1.36xG1.09
44Possession, %56
14Shots11
2Shots on target3
6Corners5
1Yellow cards1
0Red cards0
7Fouls14
1Offsides2

How the forecast did

In each market the forecast is one outcome: the most likely one before kick-off.

1 of 3
Main markets landedresult, half, totals, both to score
All forecast markets: landed 82 of 99void — 1
  • Match result Landed
    Deportivo Toluca FC63%
  • Total goals Missed
    Over 2.555%

    Actual: Under 2.5 — we had 45%

  • Both teams to score Missed
    Yes51%

    Actual: No — we had 49%

The bar is our pre-match probability. The other outcomes in a market are not picks but the probability split: one of home, draw, away always happens.

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Puebla FC15%21%6.624.80-5.7
XDraw22%26%4.513.90-3.5
2Deportivo Toluca FC63%67%1.591.50-3.9

Form and context

Puebla FC

  • awayTigres UANL0:1
  • homeClub Atlante1:1
  • homeDeportivo Toluca FC0:1
  • awayClub Necaxa1:0
  • awayClub América0:2

Deportivo Toluca FC

  • awayCruz Azul FC3:3
  • homeClub Santos Laguna2:3
  • awayPuebla FC1:0
  • homeCSyD Atlas de Guadalajara5:2
  • homeFC Juárez4:0

Head to head

  • 09/16/26Liga MX0:1
  • 01/31/26Liga MX0:0
  • 09/14/25Liga MX1:3
  • 03/15/25Liga MX0:3
  • 10/23/24Liga MX0:5

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1Deportivo Toluca FC1062223:1220
2Club América962121:1020
3CD Guadalajara1053217:1018
4Querétaro FC952213:817
5Club León1052314:1117
6CSyD Atlas de Guadalajara1052316:1717
7Cruz Azul FC1051419:1816
8Club Tijuana Xoloitzcuintles de Caliente942314:1314
9Puebla FC1042411:1214
10CF Monterrey941416:1413
11CF Pachuca1033415:1112

Full breakdown

Every market of the forecast published before the match.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.