Portugal — Norway, UEFA Nations League

UEFA Nations League

PortugalВПВНВ
—
NorwayВПВВП
1Portugal66%model1.52
XDraw17%model5.81
2Norway17%model5.85

Goals

Corners

Cards

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

xG

Shots

Shots on target

Expected goals, corners, cards and referee data — with a subscription

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calculated at 20:15, 191 мс

Outcome

Portugal66%
Draw17%
Norway17%

Corners

Subscribers only

Total 2.5

Subscribers only

Both teams to score

Subscribers only

Model vs bookmaker value

Where the model disagrees with the bookmaker most.

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Model take on Portugal vs Norway

Built from the numbers: expected goals, form, rest, absences and referee records.

Portugal look the favourite on home turf and current form — a home win is rated at 66%.

Most likely scorelines:…

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What drives the numbers

Form, rest, fixture load and league position

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Recent matches

Portugal

WLWDW
  • homeWales1:0
  • homeSpain0:1
  • homeCroatia2:1
  • awayColombia0:0
  • homeUzbekistan5:0

Norway

WLWWL
  • homeDenmark3:2
  • homeEngland1:2
  • awayBrazil2:1
  • awayIvory Coast2:1
  • homeFrance1:4

League table

League table

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
…
10Denmark21014:33
11Spain11003:23
12Norway11003:23
13Croatia11002:13
14Luxembourg11002:13
15Malta11002:13
16Greece11002:13
17Sweden11002:13
18Montenegro11002:13
19Northern Ireland11001:03
20Portugal11001:03
21Ukraine11001:03
22France11001:03
…

Three scenarios

One pick from each odds range

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Markets in detail

Probabilities are a statistical estimate from past matches, not a prediction of the result.