Portadown FC — Glentoran FC, NIFL Premiership

Northern Ireland, NIFL PremiershipOctober 9 at 06:45 PM

Portadown FC

1.2LLDLL

—

Glentoran FC

2.6WWLDL

Outcome probability

Portadown FC12%Draw13%Glentoran FC75%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1Portadown FC12%8.20—

XDraw13%7.56—

2Glentoran FC75%1.34—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes47%

ours 2.13

No53%

ours 1.88

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricPortadown FCGlentoran FCCombined

Goals scored0.501.171.67

Conceded1.831.002.83

Corners9.011.610.3

Cards2.22.04.2

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
Portadown FCGlentoran FC
12Table position5
46.20%Possession48.00%
6.2Days of rest6.2
2Matches in 14 days2
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
Glentoran FC travel as favourites: despite playing away, a win is rated at 75%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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