All matches

Polessya Zhitomir — FC Obolon-Brovar Kyiv, Ukrainian Premier League

Ukraine, Ukrainian Premier League

Polessya Zhitomir
2.7WWWWL
—
FC Obolon-Brovar Kyiv
1.3DLLDD
Outcome probability
83
Polessya Zhitomir83%Draw13%FC Obolon-Brovar Kyiv5%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Polessya Zhitomir83%1.21—
XDraw13%7.94—
2FC Obolon-Brovar Kyiv5%20.96—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes30%

ours 3.30

No70%

ours 1.44

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricPolessya ZhitomirFC Obolon-Brovar KyivCombined
Goals scored1.500.331.83
Conceded0.171.501.67
Corners8.58.88.6
Cards1.33.34.5
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    Polessya ZhitomirFC Obolon-Brovar Kyiv
    2Table position15
    5.6Days of rest7.5
    58.00%Possession45.80%
    2Matches in 14 days2
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Polessya Zhitomir look the favourite on home turf and current form — a home win is rated at 83%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total corners: Under 10.5

71%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Polessya Zhitomir

  • homeFK Hirnyk Kryvyi Rih1:0
  • homeFK Livyi Bereh1:0
  • homeFK Kudrivka5:1
  • awayFC Shakhtar Donetsk2:0
  • homeFC Zorya Luhansk1:2

FC Obolon-Brovar Kyiv

  • awayFK Chornomorets Odessa1:1
  • awayLNZ Cherkasy FC1:3
  • awayFC Metalist 1925 Kharkiv0:5
  • awayFK Kolos Kovalivka0:0
  • awayFK Kudrivka0:0

Head to head

  • 04/26/26Ukrainian Premier League3:1
  • 10/25/25Ukrainian Premier League4:0
  • 02/28/25Ukrainian Premier League0:0
  • 08/25/24Ukrainian Premier League4:0

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1FC Shakhtar Donetsk760115:418
2Polessya Zhitomir760115:518
3FC Karpaty Lviv742115:514
4FC Dynamo Kyiv64119:513
5FC Metalist 1925 Kharkiv640212:412
6FK Epitsentr Dunayivtsi72236:78
7LNZ Cherkasy FC72235:88
8FC Zorya Luhansk72237:118
9FK Livyi Bereh61414:37
10FK Bukovyna Chernivtsi71424:67
11FC Veres Rivne61324:56
12FK Hirnyk Kryvyi Rih61237:105
13FK Kolos Kovalivka61236:105
14FK Chornomorets Odessa61233:75
15FC Obolon-Brovar Kyiv70432:124
16FK Kudrivka60244:162

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.