All matches

Polessya Zhitomir — FC Dynamo Kyiv, Ukrainian Premier League

Ukraine, Ukrainian Premier League

Polessya Zhitomir
2.7WWWWL
—
FC Dynamo Kyiv
2.9WWDLW
Outcome probability
383131
Polessya Zhitomir38%Draw31%FC Dynamo Kyiv31%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Polessya Zhitomir38%2.62—
XDraw31%3.25—
2FC Dynamo Kyiv31%3.23—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes54%

ours 1.87

No46%

ours 2.15

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricPolessya ZhitomirFC Dynamo KyivCombined
Goals scored1.671.172.84
Conceded0.500.671.17
Corners9.09.09.0
Cards1.21.83.0
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    Polessya ZhitomirFC Dynamo Kyiv
    2Table position4
    59.40%Possession67.40%
    6.8Days of rest6.9
    1Matches in 14 days1
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Polessya Zhitomir look the favourite on home turf and current form — a home win is rated at 38%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Second half total: Over 0.5

72%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Polessya Zhitomir

  • homeFK Hirnyk Kryvyi Rih1:0
  • homeFK Livyi Bereh1:0
  • homeFK Kudrivka5:1
  • awayFC Shakhtar Donetsk2:0
  • homeFC Zorya Luhansk1:2

FC Dynamo Kyiv

  • awayFC Zorya Luhansk2:0
  • homeFK Epitsentr Dunayivtsi3:0
  • homeLNZ Cherkasy FC0:0
  • awayFK Bukovyna Chernivtsi0:3
  • homeFK Kolos Kovalivka2:1

Head to head

  • 03/08/26Ukrainian Premier League1:2
  • 08/31/25Ukrainian Premier League1:4
  • 05/09/25Ukrainian Premier League0:0
  • 11/10/24Ukrainian Premier League1:2

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1FC Shakhtar Donetsk760115:418
2Polessya Zhitomir760115:518
3FC Karpaty Lviv742115:514
4FC Dynamo Kyiv64119:513
5FC Metalist 1925 Kharkiv640212:412
6FK Epitsentr Dunayivtsi72236:78

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.