All matches

Botev Vratsa — Spartak Varna, First League

Bulgaria, First League

Botev Vratsa
1.6DDWLW
—
Spartak Varna
1.4LDDDL
Outcome probability
452926
Botev Vratsa45%Draw29%Spartak Varna26%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Botev Vratsa45%51%2.201.95-5.9
XDraw29%28%3.503.54+0.3
2Spartak Varna26%25%3.843.96+0.8

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes47%

ours 2.12book 1.95

No53%

ours 1.89book 1.76

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricBotev VratsaSpartak VarnaCombined
Goals scored1.000.331.33
Conceded1.831.673.50
Corners9.210.09.6
Cards2.52.24.7
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    Botev VratsaSpartak Varna
    41.50%Possession36.20%
    9Table position8
    14Days of rest14
    0Matches in 14 days0
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Home advantage and current form favour POFK Botev Vratsa: a home win is rated at 45%. Bookmakers price this at 1.95.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total goals: Over 1.5

69%1.42
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Botev Vratsa

  • awayDunav Ruse2:2
  • homeLevski Sofia0:0
  • awaySeptemvri Sofia3:2
  • awayArda0:2
  • homeBotev Plovdiv1:0

Spartak Varna

  • homeLokomotiv Sofia0:1
  • awaySlavia Sofia0:0
  • homeCSKA Sofia1:1
  • homeLudogorets1:1
  • awayLevski Sofia0:6

Head to head

  • 05/02/26First League2:1
  • 12/04/25First League2:0
  • 08/01/25First League1:1
  • 04/01/25First League0:1
  • 09/13/24First League1:1

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
6Botev Plovdiv1051416:1416
7Slavia Sofia102539:811
8Spartak Varna1024410:1510
9Botev Vratsa102359:199
10Septemvri Sofia102268:188
11Lokomotiv Sofia1014511:187

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.