Platense — CA Lanús, Primera División

Argentina, Primera DivisiónOctober 18 at 12:00 AM

Platense

1.6LLDLW

—

CA Lanús

2.2WWLDL

Outcome probability

303139

Platense30%Draw31%CA Lanús39%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1Platense30%3.34—

XDraw31%3.24—

2CA Lanús39%2.55—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes42%

ours 2.39

No58%

ours 1.72

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricPlatenseCA LanúsCombined

Goals scored0.330.500.83

Conceded0.830.331.16

Corners7.511.39.4

Cards2.82.04.8

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
PlatenseCA Lanús
2Matches in 14 days1
26Table position14
51.30%Possession55.20%
7Days of rest7
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
CA Lanús travel as favourites: despite playing away, a win is rated at 39%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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