All matches

Penybont FC — Barry Town United FC, Welsh Premier League

Wales, Welsh Premier League

Penybont FC
2.5WWWWW
—
Barry Town United FC
2.4LLDWL
Outcome probability
452728
Penybont FC45%Draw27%Barry Town United FC28%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Penybont FC45%2.21—
XDraw27%3.73—
2Barry Town United FC28%3.59—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes52%

ours 1.92

No48%

ours 2.08

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricPenybont FCBarry Town United FCCombined
Goals scored2.001.503.50
Conceded0.672.172.84
Corners8.09.68.8
Cards2.22.24.4
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    Penybont FCBarry Town United FC
    2Table position6
    58.40%Possession47.60%
    6.2Days of rest6.2
    2Matches in 14 days2
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Penybont FC look the favourite on home turf and current form — a home win is rated at 45%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Double chance: No draw

72%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Penybont FC

  • homeAirbus UK FC2:1
  • awayAmmanford AFC5:1
  • homeBriton Ferry Llansawel AFC3:2
  • awayTrefelin1:0
  • homeColwyn Bay FC1:0

Barry Town United FC

  • homeConnah's Quay Nomads FC1:4
  • awayColwyn Bay FC2:5
  • homeAmmanford AFC2:2
  • homeLlandudno FC4:1
  • awayThe New Saints FC0:1

Head to head

  • 04/03/26Welsh Premier League0:2
  • 03/03/26Welsh Premier League0:1
  • 12/09/25Welsh Premier League1:1
  • 08/22/25Welsh Premier League3:2
  • 12/26/24Welsh Premier League2:1

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1The New Saints FC11101029:531
2Penybont FC1183022:927
3Connah's Quay Nomads FC1181227:825
4Caernarfon Town FC1172235:1323
5Colwyn Bay FC1171321:1422
6Barry Town United FC1171326:2022
7Cardiff Metropolitan University FC1153322:1318
8Cambrian & Clydach Vale FC1153321:2318

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.