Both teams to score
Yes55%
ours 1.82
No45%
ours 2.23
All matches
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Paris Saint-Germain FC — Olympique Lyonnais, Ligue 1
France, Ligue 1
Paris Saint-Germain FC
4.1WWWLDOlympique Lyonnais
3.0WWDWDOutcome probability
612118
Paris Saint-Germain FC61%Draw21%Olympique Lyonnais18%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Paris Saint-Germain FC1.64—
XDraw4.79—
2Olympique Lyonnais5.56—
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricParis Saint-Germain FCOlympique LyonnaisCombined
Goals scored0.501.001.50
Conceded0.170.170.34
Corners7.510.59.0
Cards1.53.04.5
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.
- 1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
Paris Saint-Germain FCOlympique Lyonnais6Table position25Days of rest360.00%Possession43.50%3Matches in 14 days3 - 2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
Home advantage and current form favour Paris Saint-Germain FC: a home win is rated at 61%.
Most likely scorelines:…
- 3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pickRisky pickThe full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
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More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
First half total: Over 0.5
72%
Form and context
Paris Saint-Germain FC
- awayOlympique de Marseille2:1
- awayStade Brestois 291:0
- homeŠK Slovan Bratislava6:1
- homeAS Monaco FC1:2
- awayLille OSC Métropole2:2
Olympique Lyonnais
- homeStade Rennais FC4:0
- awayRSC Anderlecht2:1
- awayParis FC0:0
- homeAssociation Jeunesse Auxerroise3:1
- homeLe Havre AC1:1
Head to head
- 04/19/26Ligue 11:2
- 11/09/25Ligue 13:2
- 02/23/25Ligue 13:2
- 12/15/24Ligue 13:1
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1
AS Monaco FC54108:313
AS Monaco FC54108:3132Olympique Lyonnais532010:211
Olympique Lyonnais532010:2113
Paris FC53208:311
Paris FC53208:3114
Lille OSC Métropole53118:410
Lille OSC Métropole53118:4105
Stade Rennais FC53118:910
Stade Rennais FC53118:9106Paris Saint-Germain FC52218:78
Paris Saint-Germain FC52218:787
Angers Sporting Club de l'Ouest52126:57
Angers Sporting Club de l'Ouest52126:578
RC Strasbourg Alsace521210:107
RC Strasbourg Alsace521210:107