All matches

PAOK Thessaloniki FC — PS PAE Kalamata, Super League

Greece, Super League

PAOK Thessaloniki FC
3.0WWLWL
—
PS PAE Kalamata
1.8LWDLL
Outcome probability
7715
PAOK Thessaloniki FC77%Draw15%PS PAE Kalamata8%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1PAOK Thessaloniki FC77%1.29—
XDraw15%6.76—
2PS PAE Kalamata8%12.94—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes51%

ours 1.97

No49%

ours 2.03

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricPAOK Thessaloniki FCPS PAE KalamataCombined
Goals scored2.331.203.53
Conceded1.331.602.93
Corners9.09.09.0
Cards2.23.45.6
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    PAOK Thessaloniki FCPS PAE Kalamata
    2Table position10
    43.00%Possession43.60%
    14Days of rest14
    0Matches in 14 days0
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Home advantage and current form favour PAOK Thessaloniki FC: a home win is rated at 77%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

First half total: Over 1.5

71%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

PAOK Thessaloniki FC

  • awayPanaitolikos GFS Agrinio3:1
  • homeAris Thessaloniki FC2:0
  • awayPanathinaikos FC1:3
  • awayPAE APS Atromitos Athens2:1
  • awaySK Brann2:3

PS PAE Kalamata

  • homePanathinaikos FC0:1
  • homeVolos New Football Club3:1
  • awayPAE APS Atromitos Athens1:1
  • awayPanaitolikos GFS Agrinio0:2
  • homeAris Thessaloniki FC2:3

Head to head

No head-to-head matches on record.

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1Panathinaikos FC550012:215
2PAOK Thessaloniki FC540112:512
3AEK Athens FC532013:311
4OFI FC53118:410
5Olympiakos CFP53114:210
6Panaitolikos GFS Agrinio53028:79
7Aris Thessaloniki FC52125:107
8Iraklis Thessaloniki FC51314:66
9Kifisias FC51224:75
10PS PAE Kalamata51136:84
11PAE APS Atromitos Athens50234:72
12Asteras Tripolis FC50234:92

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.