Panathinaikos FC — FK Borac Banja Luka, UEFA Europa Conference League

Europe, UEFA Europa Conference LeagueOctober 15 at 04:45 PM

Panathinaikos FC

3.2WWWWW

—

FK Borac Banja Luka

4.0WWWLW

Outcome probability

6722

Panathinaikos FC67%Draw22%FK Borac Banja Luka11%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1Panathinaikos FC67%1.49—

XDraw22%4.51—

2FK Borac Banja Luka11%9.15—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes39%

ours 2.58

No61%

ours 1.63

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricPanathinaikos FCFK Borac Banja LukaCombined

Goals scored2.001.333.33

Conceded0.330.671.00

Corners9.47.08.2

Cards2.01.43.4

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
Panathinaikos FCFK Borac Banja Luka
14Table position9
3.9Days of rest5.7
61.20%Possession59.60%
1Matches in 14 days1
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
Panathinaikos FC look the favourite on home turf and current form — a home win is rated at 67%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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