Paide Linnameeskond — JK Narva Trans, Meistriliiga

Estonia, MeistriliigaOctober 18 at 02:00 PM

Paide Linnameeskond

3.0WWLWL

—

JK Narva Trans

1.1DLDLL

Outcome probability

Paide Linnameeskond76%Draw13%JK Narva Trans11%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1Paide Linnameeskond76%1.32—

XDraw13%7.63—

2JK Narva Trans11%8.91—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes31%

ours 3.20

No69%

ours 1.45

Over 2.5 goals

This market opens with a subscription.

See plans

Over 9.5 corners

This market opens with a subscription.

See plans

Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricPaide LinnameeskondJK Narva TransCombined

Goals scored1.330.672.00

Conceded0.501.331.83

Corners9.010.39.6

Cards2.01.53.5

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

The other six metrics — with a subscription

Free full access for 3 days when you sign up

Start free Plans

Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
Paide LinnameeskondJK Narva Trans
3Table position10
54.80%Possession52.50%
4Days of rest4
2Matches in 14 days2
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
Paide Linnameeskond look the favourite on home turf and current form — a home win is rated at 76%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
Free full access for 3 days when you sign up
Start free Plans