All matches

Örgryte IS — Mjällby AIF, Allsvenskan

Sweden, Allsvenskan

Örgryte IS
1.4LLDLD
—
Mjällby AIF
2.5LDLLL
Outcome probability
252352
Örgryte IS25%Draw23%Mjällby AIF52%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Örgryte IS25%3.94—
XDraw23%4.43—
2Mjällby AIF52%1.92—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes56%

ours 1.80

No44%

ours 2.25

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricÖrgryte ISMjällby AIFCombined
Goals scored0.500.000.50
Conceded1.170.501.67
Corners9.05.07.0
Cards0.04.04.0
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    Örgryte ISMjällby AIF
    2Matches in 14 days3
    54.80%Possession37.30%
    15Table position12
    5.1Days of rest4.1
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Away from home, Mjällby AIF still look stronger — an away win is rated at 52%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Second half total: Under 2.5

71%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Örgryte IS

  • homeIK Sirius Fotboll1:2
  • awayMalmö FF1:4
  • homeHammarby IF1:1
  • awayIFK Göteborg0:1
  • homeHalmstads BK1:1

Mjällby AIF

  • homeGAIS0:3
  • awayBK Häcken1:1
  • homeIFK Göteborg1:4
  • homeDjurgårdens IF0:2
  • awayDjurgårdens IF0:4

Head to head

  • 04/11/26Allsvenskan2:0

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
10GAIS2186728:1830
11IF Brommapojkarna2276930:3627
12Mjällby AIF21561026:3721
13Degerfors21541219:3219
14Kalmar FF22541321:3619
15Örgryte IS22361325:4915
16Halmstads BK22351416:4014

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.