All matches

Orense SC — CD Cuenca, Primera Categoría Serie A

Ecuador, Primera Categoría Serie A

Orense SC
1.7LLWLL
—
CD Cuenca
1.6DDLWL
Outcome probability
432829
Orense SC43%Draw28%CD Cuenca29%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Orense SC43%2.34—
XDraw28%3.53—
2CD Cuenca29%3.46—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes47%

ours 2.11

No53%

ours 1.90

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricOrense SCCD CuencaCombined
Goals scored1.170.671.84
Conceded2.171.003.17
Corners8.79.28.9
Cards2.32.04.3
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    Orense SCCD Cuenca
    13Table position12
    47.80%Possession47.30%
    14Days of rest14
    0Matches in 14 days0
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Orense SC look the favourite on home turf and current form — a home win is rated at 43%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Double chance: No draw

71%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Orense SC

  • awayManta FC1:2
  • awayCD Universidad Católica del Ecuador1:2
  • homeGuayaquil City FC4:3
  • awayCD Leones del Norte0:1
  • homeCSD Macará1:2

CD Cuenca

  • homeMushuc Runa SC1:1
  • awayLiga Deportiva Universitaria de Quito1:1
  • homeCA Libertad0:1
  • homeGuayaquil City FC1:0
  • awayCD Técnico Universitario1:3

Head to head

  • 08/16/26Primera Categoría Serie A2:0
  • 04/22/26Primera Categoría Serie A3:1
  • 08/31/25Primera Categoría Serie A1:1
  • 05/10/25Primera Categoría Serie A1:0
  • 08/10/24Primera Categoría Serie A2:1

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
10Mushuc Runa SC319121036:3939
11CS Emelec311091226:3639
12CD Cuenca311071426:3837
13Orense SC31961637:4933
14CD Técnico Universitario311031829:4333
15Delfin SC31781620:3229

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.