All matches

Operário Ferroviário EC — Botafogo FC Ribeirão Preto, Serie B

Brazil, Serie B

Operário Ferroviário EC
2.1DWDWW
—
Botafogo FC Ribeirão Preto
1.3WDLLL
Outcome probability
572518
Operário Ferroviário EC57%Draw25%Botafogo FC Ribeirão Preto18%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Operário Ferroviário EC57%1.75—
XDraw25%4.07—
2Botafogo FC Ribeirão Preto18%5.50—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes48%

ours 2.09

No52%

ours 1.91

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricOperário Ferroviário ECBotafogo FC Ribeirão PretoCombined
Goals scored2.000.832.83
Conceded1.001.332.33
Corners10.69.29.9
Cards3.22.65.8
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    Operário Ferroviário ECBotafogo FC Ribeirão Preto
    7Table position16
    4.9Days of rest4
    46.00%Possession49.40%
    2Matches in 14 days2
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Operário Ferroviário EC look the favourite on home turf and current form — a home win is rated at 57%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total corners: Under 12.5

70%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Operário Ferroviário EC

  • homeCeará SC2:2
  • awayCriciuma EC2:0
  • awayClube Náutico Capibaribe3:3
  • homeClube de Regatas Brasil3:0
  • awayLondrina EC2:1

Botafogo FC Ribeirão Preto

  • homeAssociacao Atletica Ponte Preta2:0
  • awayAthletic Club (Minas Gerais)1:1
  • homeGoiás EC1:3
  • homeGrêmio Novorizontino1:3
  • awayClube Náutico Capibaribe0:1

Head to head

  • 06/14/26Serie B1:2
  • 09/18/25Serie B1:1
  • 05/17/25Serie B3:0
  • 10/13/24Serie B0:0
  • 06/22/24Serie B0:1

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
5Criciuma EC30148831:2750
6AC Goianiense301310737:2749
7Operário Ferroviário EC30139843:3848
8Clube de Regatas Brasil301461045:4148
9SC do Recife301111840:3244
10Cuiabá EC301013730:2543
11São Bernardo FC301191040:3142
12Athletic Club (Minas Gerais)301012836:3342
13Goiás EC301261230:3642
14Clube Náutico Capibaribe301181138:3741
15Ceará SC30991233:3936
16Botafogo FC Ribeirão Preto30981334:3635
17Avai FC30861630:4130
18Londrina EC30771639:4328

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.