Once Caldas — Llaneros, Categoria Primera A

Colombia, Categoria Primera AOctober 10 at 01:10 AM

Once Caldas

2.3LLWLL

—

Llaneros

1.6LWLLL

Outcome probability

622314

Once Caldas62%Draw23%Llaneros14%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1Once Caldas62%1.60—

XDraw23%4.28—

2Llaneros14%7.06—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes44%

ours 2.29

No56%

ours 1.78

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricOnce CaldasLlanerosCombined

Goals scored0.501.171.67

Conceded1.331.502.83

Corners9.09.69.3

Cards2.03.25.2

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
Once CaldasLlaneros
8Table position14
55.60%Possession47.40%
5.2Days of rest5
2Matches in 14 days2
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
Home advantage and current form favour Once Caldas SA: a home win is rated at 62%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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