All matches

Olympiakos CFP — PS PAE Kalamata, Super League

Greece, Super League

Olympiakos CFP
3.5WWLDW
—
PS PAE Kalamata
1.8LWDLL
Outcome probability
8014
Olympiakos CFP80%Draw14%PS PAE Kalamata6%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Olympiakos CFP80%1.25—
XDraw14%7.05—
2PS PAE Kalamata6%16.47—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes30%

ours 3.29

No70%

ours 1.44

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricOlympiakos CFPPS PAE KalamataCombined
Goals scored0.500.671.17
Conceded0.170.831.00
Corners13.08.510.8
Cards2.03.55.5
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    Olympiakos CFPPS PAE Kalamata
    2.8Days of rest7
    5Table position10
    4Matches in 14 days2
    64.00%Possession45.30%
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Olympiakos CFP look the favourite on home turf and current form — a home win is rated at 80%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Both teams to score: No

70%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Olympiakos CFP

  • awayLevadiakos FC1:0
  • homeSSA Jagiellonia Białystok2:1
  • homeOFI FC0:1
  • awayVolos New Football Club1:1
  • awayAsteras Tripolis FC1:0

PS PAE Kalamata

  • homePanathinaikos FC0:1
  • homeVolos New Football Club3:1
  • awayPAE APS Atromitos Athens1:1
  • awayPanaitolikos GFS Agrinio0:2
  • homeAris Thessaloniki FC2:3

Head to head

No head-to-head matches on record.

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
3AEK Athens FC532013:311
4OFI FC53118:410
5Olympiakos CFP53114:210
6Panaitolikos GFS Agrinio53028:79
7Aris Thessaloniki FC52125:107
8Iraklis Thessaloniki FC51314:66
9Kifisias FC51224:75
10PS PAE Kalamata51136:84
11PAE APS Atromitos Athens50234:72
12Asteras Tripolis FC50234:92

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.