All matches

Norwich City FC — Southampton FC, Championship

England, Championship

Norwich City FC
1.7LLWWL
—
Southampton FC
1.9LWWDD
Outcome probability
322741
Norwich City FC32%Draw27%Southampton FC41%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Norwich City FC32%3.11—
XDraw27%3.68—
2Southampton FC41%2.46—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes70%

ours 1.43

No30%

ours 3.31

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricNorwich City FCSouthampton FCCombined
Goals scored1.831.673.50
Conceded1.831.002.83
Corners9.28.48.8
Cards2.41.23.6
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    Norwich City FCSouthampton FC
    17Table position4
    4.3Days of rest3.3
    56.80%Possession58.60%
    1Matches in 14 days1
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Away from home, Southampton FC still look stronger — an away win is rated at 41%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total goals: Under 4.5

71%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Norwich City FC

  • homeBolton Wanderers FC3:4
  • awayMiddlesbrough FC3:4
  • homeBirmingham City FC2:1
  • awaySheffield United FC3:1
  • awayStoke City FC0:1

Southampton FC

  • awayWrexham FC1:2
  • homeBristol City FC4:1
  • homeSwansea City AFC3:1
  • awayLincoln City FC1:1
  • awayBirmingham City FC1:1

Head to head

  • 03/18/26Championship0:1
  • 12/13/25Championship2:1

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
2West Ham United FC843122:1115
3Middlesbrough FC843116:1215
4Southampton FC842219:1014
5Wolverhampton Wanderers FC742115:1014
6West Bromwich Albion FC842210:814
7Queens Park Rangers FC834110:713
8Stoke City FC841313:1213
9Bristol City FC841311:1213
10Charlton Athletic FC83327:1012
11Birmingham City FC825112:1111
12Millwall FC832315:1511
13Lincoln City FC83237:811
14Wrexham FC82429:1210
15Bolton Wanderers FC831411:1510
16Blackburn Rovers FC823312:129
17Norwich City FC830516:179
18Sheffield United FC82339:119
19Portsmouth FC72239:108

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.